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Soccer
1/26/22
Some WCQ plays for tomorrow:
Brazil without Neymar and Richarlson going to the altitudes in Quito, but at +130 I think it still makes sense.
BTTS NO: Bahrain hosting Uganda friendly -135.
Uruguay to win at Paraguay. I've lost alot of money betting on Uruguay to score goals of late. Cavani seems to be having an off (or old person) year, he returns to the lineup for this one.+150
China +1.5 over Japan. I'm back pro-China who has done pretty well since they injected their 3 Brazilians and got their best offensive player healthy but have had a rough schedule. They'll only have 1 of the Brazilians in this one (as one got stuck in the airport en route to Japan for 24 hours and suddently had familiy issues), but at +105 I think they ahve it. Post their Sept 7 talent arrival they lost by 1 to Japan, by 1 to Saudi, drew Oman, drew Australia. First game for new coach here who doesnt reveal much from his one year coaching Wuhan.
Iran hosting Iraq in 40 degree wet weather, might see more goals than usual in this clash. I wanted to play win to nil but instead took Iran 1-0,2-0,3-0, the perennially mispriced MGM bet at +110
Panama +0.5 over Costa Rica. I have Costa Rica only slight favorites here at home, so -150 seems a good price.
1/19/22
Guinea-Zimbabwe is the all-female refereeing squad. My narrative was that they woman referee would establish herself by handing out cards, but Guinea has 5 players with 1 yellow and they will want it erased so will be on best behavior. So I'm not sure how to play this narrative. I might just go with Zimbabwe -0.75 cards. -105.Still on Morocco to hammer Gabon. Very surprised line only moved to -135. Going to double down with Morocco -1.5 +250 and -2.7 +750. It could get chaotic.Also cashed in my Aboubakar +300 golden boot. The early cashout decision was equivalent to betting +450 on 'the field', which I think is reasonable with the field mostly still having their often wide-open 3rd match open despite his 5 goals to 2 lead on 4 players.
1/17/22
Really like Morocco -135 over Gabon. Gabon just announced 7 players unavailable for COVID. Aubameyang would be an 8th with heart lesions post 2 bouts of COVID didn’t train Sunday and I think unlikely to return, particularly if Arsenal has anything to say about it. an insurance payout for heart disability would be a clever way out of their situation and hard to make a case id they let him play here. No love lost with Gabon mgmt who refused to play players, and they had earlier refused their hotel.Counterpoint both teams happy with a draw here to solidify their 1st and 2nd finish in group. But -135 is a crazy line to me considering pre tournament strengths. I think this is a -200 game
1/11/22:
Taking the u3 -138 in El Clásico tomorrow. I see this one being fairly cagey. Barca will try to dominate possession. If they’re successful, this one goes way under. If they aren’t, it could be a multi-goal defeat but I still don’t see 4 goals coming out of that one
1/8/22
If you have a giant database of corners data (with historical corners o/u lines), you can calculate the sample variance against the expected corners amount (not the variance against the sample mean). If you only have historical win% and o/u goals odds, I'd look at a homogenous subset of the data (lets say all game where the win% is close to 70% and the o/u is close to 2.5) and calculate the sample variance against the mean. If your test shows variance greater than mean than it points towards negative binomial.My hunch is that this isnt the best market to "predict the expected # of corners" and then "estimate a distribution around it". Its probably better for a simulation model that allows you to account for game phase and also to correlate the # of corners by each side. I also think the 'dangerous attack' counts that they have on flashscore might be a more stable variable to predict as a precursor to predicting corners.
1/26/22
Some WCQ plays for tomorrow:
Brazil without Neymar and Richarlson going to the altitudes in Quito, but at +130 I think it still makes sense.
BTTS NO: Bahrain hosting Uganda friendly -135.
Uruguay to win at Paraguay. I've lost alot of money betting on Uruguay to score goals of late. Cavani seems to be having an off (or old person) year, he returns to the lineup for this one.+150
China +1.5 over Japan. I'm back pro-China who has done pretty well since they injected their 3 Brazilians and got their best offensive player healthy but have had a rough schedule. They'll only have 1 of the Brazilians in this one (as one got stuck in the airport en route to Japan for 24 hours and suddently had familiy issues), but at +105 I think they ahve it. Post their Sept 7 talent arrival they lost by 1 to Japan, by 1 to Saudi, drew Oman, drew Australia. First game for new coach here who doesnt reveal much from his one year coaching Wuhan.
Iran hosting Iraq in 40 degree wet weather, might see more goals than usual in this clash. I wanted to play win to nil but instead took Iran 1-0,2-0,3-0, the perennially mispriced MGM bet at +110
Panama +0.5 over Costa Rica. I have Costa Rica only slight favorites here at home, so -150 seems a good price.
1/19/22
Guinea-Zimbabwe is the all-female refereeing squad. My narrative was that they woman referee would establish herself by handing out cards, but Guinea has 5 players with 1 yellow and they will want it erased so will be on best behavior. So I'm not sure how to play this narrative. I might just go with Zimbabwe -0.75 cards. -105.Still on Morocco to hammer Gabon. Very surprised line only moved to -135. Going to double down with Morocco -1.5 +250 and -2.7 +750. It could get chaotic.Also cashed in my Aboubakar +300 golden boot. The early cashout decision was equivalent to betting +450 on 'the field', which I think is reasonable with the field mostly still having their often wide-open 3rd match open despite his 5 goals to 2 lead on 4 players.
1/17/22
Really like Morocco -135 over Gabon. Gabon just announced 7 players unavailable for COVID. Aubameyang would be an 8th with heart lesions post 2 bouts of COVID didn’t train Sunday and I think unlikely to return, particularly if Arsenal has anything to say about it. an insurance payout for heart disability would be a clever way out of their situation and hard to make a case id they let him play here. No love lost with Gabon mgmt who refused to play players, and they had earlier refused their hotel.Counterpoint both teams happy with a draw here to solidify their 1st and 2nd finish in group. But -135 is a crazy line to me considering pre tournament strengths. I think this is a -200 game
1/11/22:
Taking the u3 -138 in El Clásico tomorrow. I see this one being fairly cagey. Barca will try to dominate possession. If they’re successful, this one goes way under. If they aren’t, it could be a multi-goal defeat but I still don’t see 4 goals coming out of that one
1/8/22
If you have a giant database of corners data (with historical corners o/u lines), you can calculate the sample variance against the expected corners amount (not the variance against the sample mean). If you only have historical win% and o/u goals odds, I'd look at a homogenous subset of the data (lets say all game where the win% is close to 70% and the o/u is close to 2.5) and calculate the sample variance against the mean. If your test shows variance greater than mean than it points towards negative binomial.My hunch is that this isnt the best market to "predict the expected # of corners" and then "estimate a distribution around it". Its probably better for a simulation model that allows you to account for game phase and also to correlate the # of corners by each side. I also think the 'dangerous attack' counts that they have on flashscore might be a more stable variable to predict as a precursor to predicting corners.