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Soccer
3/5/23
So let's break this thing down (or at least ramble about the big market moves we're seeing here): The simple explanation for the steam is that limits went up from 10k to 30k at 833am (Central Europe time). The steam started around then. Nothing major moved right away: at 903am it was still at 1.609 (up only .007 points since the limit increase). It moved up slowly from there for a few hours and then there was a series of seven bets/moves in 6 mins at 1130ish - likely someone rebetting - and the line moved from 1.666 to 1.746. Ultimately what this means is that whoever is betting this morning - if they are betting rationally and with good information - must have been showing a HUGE edge on Barcelona prior to these injuries and suspensions. They had a huge edge on Barca -1.5 but wanted to hold due to low limits (reasonable; limits were 500 when the Gavi suspension occurred). When the injuries happened, their number on Barca would have adjusted, but since the line moved heavily towards Valencia, they would still be showing an edge. Maybe the line even moved too much because originally there was news that Raphinha was suspended too, but now he's not. Then limits go up, and they hammer their edge, more steam follows, etc. So if we read this as "Valencia +1.5 at 1.833 at the time of Gavi's suspension was just a super wrong line", today's steam can make sense. If Valencia +1.5 at 1.833 was even approximately accurate, the steam we're seeing this morning seems to not give enough weight to 3 of Barca's 4 best players being out.
3/5/23
So let's break this thing down (or at least ramble about the big market moves we're seeing here): The simple explanation for the steam is that limits went up from 10k to 30k at 833am (Central Europe time). The steam started around then. Nothing major moved right away: at 903am it was still at 1.609 (up only .007 points since the limit increase). It moved up slowly from there for a few hours and then there was a series of seven bets/moves in 6 mins at 1130ish - likely someone rebetting - and the line moved from 1.666 to 1.746. Ultimately what this means is that whoever is betting this morning - if they are betting rationally and with good information - must have been showing a HUGE edge on Barcelona prior to these injuries and suspensions. They had a huge edge on Barca -1.5 but wanted to hold due to low limits (reasonable; limits were 500 when the Gavi suspension occurred). When the injuries happened, their number on Barca would have adjusted, but since the line moved heavily towards Valencia, they would still be showing an edge. Maybe the line even moved too much because originally there was news that Raphinha was suspended too, but now he's not. Then limits go up, and they hammer their edge, more steam follows, etc. So if we read this as "Valencia +1.5 at 1.833 at the time of Gavi's suspension was just a super wrong line", today's steam can make sense. If Valencia +1.5 at 1.833 was even approximately accurate, the steam we're seeing this morning seems to not give enough weight to 3 of Barca's 4 best players being out.