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3/6/23
Washington Capitals vs Los Angelos Kings Kings in Regulation -105 If you didn’t know better you’d think the Capitals were finding their stride on this West-Coast swing because as they enter tonight’s match-up with LA they’ve won their past two games, but as is often the case, things aren’t always what they appear. Because despite what we’ve come to know as fact in the past, a west-coast road swing through California is more of a vacation than anything, with both the Sharks and Ducks being bottom-of-the-barrel squads. And what the Capitals get in the last game of this road trip is anything but, as what’s plagued the Kings all year hasn’t been the play from their skaters, but rather some really uninspiring goaltending. They’ve driven play all year long, owning a 52.24% expected goals share, and consistently winning the attempts battle to the tune of 51.9% (Corsi). And with the early returns on the addition of Korpisalo coming back strong, he made 24 saves and led his team to a 4-2 victory over the St. Louis Blues, it’s looking like the Kings are a genuine darkhorse in a very wide-open Western Conference playoff picture. Lastly, and I don’t typically love sighting these trends as their correlation tends to be flimsy at best, but after seeing much of the Capitals team taking in a game last night, maybe there’s something to the boys from DC enjoying a little nightlife in LA —- because the Capitals have gone 3-8 in its past 11 trips to Hollywood.
2/21/23
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals Capitals in Regulation +109 Buy-Low meets Sell-High in this one because although the Red Wings have strung together some wins over the last 10 games, they’ve really not done so by carrying the play at 5-on-5. Because although this Detroit team is 7-3 over the last 10, their underlying numbers aren’t at all indicative of a team who is starting to put the pieces together, as their expected goals share is below 45% in that time span. Moreover, they are literally dead last in that span in terms of scoring chances created at 39% and pretty clearly are enjoying a very “lucky” streak in terms of shooting percentage. So while the Capitals haven’t exactly been playing their best hockey of late, I still think their ability to activate the defense in the attack is something that teams struggle to defend. Beyond that though, there’s an old saying in this gambling game; “beware of the trendy dog”. This feels particularly true in this one as the Wings got steamed pretty hard overnight, and the reality is I just can’t get away from the fact that my internal power rankings still have Washington pretty safely ahead of Detroit. So while it won’t be popular, I am more than willing to go against a RedWings team who is pretty clearly enjoying some results that don’t necessarily reflect their play.
1/10/23
Wild vs New York Rangers
Wild +125 It’s becoming a very familiar story for this Rangers team, well at least for me. Because I spent much of the 2nd half of last season losing money fading this team —- and while a smarter man than I (or at least less stubborn) would take their medicine and admit this Rangers team just has a way of winning more games than the underlying numbers would suggest they ought to, I AIN’T THAT GUY PAL. Because despite the 51 points that would say otherwise, I’m still not convinced that this Rangers team is even a borderline cup contender like the market tends to price them as. First and foremost, the offensive/possession numbers aren’t that impressive —- they are creating just 49.8% of the expected goals at 5-on-5, account for barely over 50% of the shot attempts, and despite getting 52% of the powerplay time, are creating less than 50% of the expected powerplay goals. If it weren’t for Igor and some high shooting %’s amongst their star players this season might look a fair bit different —- but it was the same song and dance last year wasn’t it? Well eventually the good fortune is going to run out, and while the bottom isn’t likely to fall out for this team, getting the Wild at a nice little underdog price is something I can certainly get behind. Because while the offensive in Minny isn’t exactly elite, the defensive side of the ice is where this team excels —- the Wild rank 3rd in expected goals against per 60 minutes, and while the attack has struggled at times to create high-danger chances, this is a game that I’m expecting to be fairly low-event, and honestly should be priced a little closer to coin flip then we are seeing right now. Espescially with how well Filip Gustavsson has played in net for the Wild, Igor’s going to have to be at his best to have the sizeable edge in net this line indicates. So give me the Wild to win what looks to be a real scrappy battle in the Big Apple.
1/5/23
Avalanche vs Canucks
Avs in Regulation +102
So there are two things at play here that I’m thinking provide us gamblers a little bit of value on Colorado —- the first of which is the improving health of the defending cup champs. First and foremost the return of Nathan Mackinnon is a boost to the system, but beyond the captain, Valeri Nichuskin was a more or less full participant in the morning skate, and despite the day-to-day classification on the injury list, I’d be pretty surprised if he didn’t play. If both are a go, this is a slam dunk in my estimation —- and when these teams play a little later in the year, don’t be surprised to see a massive - sign beside the Avalanche name. And that is because it is really hard to know where the bottom is for the Canucks team right now, especially after a truly listless performance last time out against the Islanders in which the scoreboard properly reflected just how poor this group played. The goaltending is shotty, the forward group outside of Elias Peterson just isn’t producing, and with Bruce Boudreau in charge, the defensive zone coverage is just going to be what it is —- poor. Moreover, this group has just been a dysfunctional mess from the start of the season; because whether it was the GM going on the radio talking about the coach’s contract (or lack thereof), or the captain slamming his stick against the crossbar of his own cage, this team is just not pulling in the same direction. So with the narrative laid out, do the numbers support it? Well, of course, they do! Because Vancouver has struggled to carry play all year, owning a below 50% Corsi/Fenwick, and accounting for just 48.4% of the expected goals share —- a number that’s actually slipped to 46% over the past 5 games. And while I grant you that’s a small sample size, it’s just indicative of where this team is heading —- and it’s in the WRONG DIRECTION.
Washington Capitals vs Los Angelos Kings Kings in Regulation -105 If you didn’t know better you’d think the Capitals were finding their stride on this West-Coast swing because as they enter tonight’s match-up with LA they’ve won their past two games, but as is often the case, things aren’t always what they appear. Because despite what we’ve come to know as fact in the past, a west-coast road swing through California is more of a vacation than anything, with both the Sharks and Ducks being bottom-of-the-barrel squads. And what the Capitals get in the last game of this road trip is anything but, as what’s plagued the Kings all year hasn’t been the play from their skaters, but rather some really uninspiring goaltending. They’ve driven play all year long, owning a 52.24% expected goals share, and consistently winning the attempts battle to the tune of 51.9% (Corsi). And with the early returns on the addition of Korpisalo coming back strong, he made 24 saves and led his team to a 4-2 victory over the St. Louis Blues, it’s looking like the Kings are a genuine darkhorse in a very wide-open Western Conference playoff picture. Lastly, and I don’t typically love sighting these trends as their correlation tends to be flimsy at best, but after seeing much of the Capitals team taking in a game last night, maybe there’s something to the boys from DC enjoying a little nightlife in LA —- because the Capitals have gone 3-8 in its past 11 trips to Hollywood.
2/21/23
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals Capitals in Regulation +109 Buy-Low meets Sell-High in this one because although the Red Wings have strung together some wins over the last 10 games, they’ve really not done so by carrying the play at 5-on-5. Because although this Detroit team is 7-3 over the last 10, their underlying numbers aren’t at all indicative of a team who is starting to put the pieces together, as their expected goals share is below 45% in that time span. Moreover, they are literally dead last in that span in terms of scoring chances created at 39% and pretty clearly are enjoying a very “lucky” streak in terms of shooting percentage. So while the Capitals haven’t exactly been playing their best hockey of late, I still think their ability to activate the defense in the attack is something that teams struggle to defend. Beyond that though, there’s an old saying in this gambling game; “beware of the trendy dog”. This feels particularly true in this one as the Wings got steamed pretty hard overnight, and the reality is I just can’t get away from the fact that my internal power rankings still have Washington pretty safely ahead of Detroit. So while it won’t be popular, I am more than willing to go against a RedWings team who is pretty clearly enjoying some results that don’t necessarily reflect their play.
1/10/23
Wild vs New York Rangers
Wild +125 It’s becoming a very familiar story for this Rangers team, well at least for me. Because I spent much of the 2nd half of last season losing money fading this team —- and while a smarter man than I (or at least less stubborn) would take their medicine and admit this Rangers team just has a way of winning more games than the underlying numbers would suggest they ought to, I AIN’T THAT GUY PAL. Because despite the 51 points that would say otherwise, I’m still not convinced that this Rangers team is even a borderline cup contender like the market tends to price them as. First and foremost, the offensive/possession numbers aren’t that impressive —- they are creating just 49.8% of the expected goals at 5-on-5, account for barely over 50% of the shot attempts, and despite getting 52% of the powerplay time, are creating less than 50% of the expected powerplay goals. If it weren’t for Igor and some high shooting %’s amongst their star players this season might look a fair bit different —- but it was the same song and dance last year wasn’t it? Well eventually the good fortune is going to run out, and while the bottom isn’t likely to fall out for this team, getting the Wild at a nice little underdog price is something I can certainly get behind. Because while the offensive in Minny isn’t exactly elite, the defensive side of the ice is where this team excels —- the Wild rank 3rd in expected goals against per 60 minutes, and while the attack has struggled at times to create high-danger chances, this is a game that I’m expecting to be fairly low-event, and honestly should be priced a little closer to coin flip then we are seeing right now. Espescially with how well Filip Gustavsson has played in net for the Wild, Igor’s going to have to be at his best to have the sizeable edge in net this line indicates. So give me the Wild to win what looks to be a real scrappy battle in the Big Apple.
1/5/23
Avalanche vs Canucks
Avs in Regulation +102
So there are two things at play here that I’m thinking provide us gamblers a little bit of value on Colorado —- the first of which is the improving health of the defending cup champs. First and foremost the return of Nathan Mackinnon is a boost to the system, but beyond the captain, Valeri Nichuskin was a more or less full participant in the morning skate, and despite the day-to-day classification on the injury list, I’d be pretty surprised if he didn’t play. If both are a go, this is a slam dunk in my estimation —- and when these teams play a little later in the year, don’t be surprised to see a massive - sign beside the Avalanche name. And that is because it is really hard to know where the bottom is for the Canucks team right now, especially after a truly listless performance last time out against the Islanders in which the scoreboard properly reflected just how poor this group played. The goaltending is shotty, the forward group outside of Elias Peterson just isn’t producing, and with Bruce Boudreau in charge, the defensive zone coverage is just going to be what it is —- poor. Moreover, this group has just been a dysfunctional mess from the start of the season; because whether it was the GM going on the radio talking about the coach’s contract (or lack thereof), or the captain slamming his stick against the crossbar of his own cage, this team is just not pulling in the same direction. So with the narrative laid out, do the numbers support it? Well, of course, they do! Because Vancouver has struggled to carry play all year, owning a below 50% Corsi/Fenwick, and accounting for just 48.4% of the expected goals share —- a number that’s actually slipped to 46% over the past 5 games. And while I grant you that’s a small sample size, it’s just indicative of where this team is heading —- and it’s in the WRONG DIRECTION.