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1/10/23
Wild vs New York Rangers
Wild +125 It’s becoming a very familiar story for this Rangers team, well at least for me. Because I spent much of the 2nd half of last season losing money fading this team —- and while a smarter man than I (or at least less stubborn) would take their medicine and admit this Rangers team just has a way of winning more games than the underlying numbers would suggest they ought to, I AIN’T THAT GUY PAL. Because despite the 51 points that would say otherwise, I’m still not convinced that this Rangers team is even a borderline cup contender like the market tends to price them as. First and foremost, the offensive/possession numbers aren’t that impressive —- they are creating just 49.8% of the expected goals at 5-on-5, account for barely over 50% of the shot attempts, and despite getting 52% of the powerplay time, are creating less than 50% of the expected powerplay goals. If it weren’t for Igor and some high shooting %’s amongst their star players this season might look a fair bit different —- but it was the same song and dance last year wasn’t it? Well eventually the good fortune is going to run out, and while the bottom isn’t likely to fall out for this team, getting the Wild at a nice little underdog price is something I can certainly get behind. Because while the offensive in Minny isn’t exactly elite, the defensive side of the ice is where this team excels —- the Wild rank 3rd in expected goals against per 60 minutes, and while the attack has struggled at times to create high-danger chances, this is a game that I’m expecting to be fairly low-event, and honestly should be priced a little closer to coin flip then we are seeing right now. Espescially with how well Filip Gustavsson has played in net for the Wild, Igor’s going to have to be at his best to have the sizeable edge in net this line indicates. So give me the Wild to win what looks to be a real scrappy battle in the Big Apple.
1/5/23
Avalanche vs Canucks
Avs in Regulation +102
So there are two things at play here that I’m thinking provide us gamblers a little bit of value on Colorado —- the first of which is the improving health of the defending cup champs. First and foremost the return of Nathan Mackinnon is a boost to the system, but beyond the captain, Valeri Nichuskin was a more or less full participant in the morning skate, and despite the day-to-day classification on the injury list, I’d be pretty surprised if he didn’t play. If both are a go, this is a slam dunk in my estimation —- and when these teams play a little later in the year, don’t be surprised to see a massive - sign beside the Avalanche name. And that is because it is really hard to know where the bottom is for the Canucks team right now, especially after a truly listless performance last time out against the Islanders in which the scoreboard properly reflected just how poor this group played. The goaltending is shotty, the forward group outside of Elias Peterson just isn’t producing, and with Bruce Boudreau in charge, the defensive zone coverage is just going to be what it is —- poor. Moreover, this group has just been a dysfunctional mess from the start of the season; because whether it was the GM going on the radio talking about the coach’s contract (or lack thereof), or the captain slamming his stick against the crossbar of his own cage, this team is just not pulling in the same direction. So with the narrative laid out, do the numbers support it? Well, of course, they do! Because Vancouver has struggled to carry play all year, owning a below 50% Corsi/Fenwick, and accounting for just 48.4% of the expected goals share —- a number that’s actually slipped to 46% over the past 5 games. And while I grant you that’s a small sample size, it’s just indicative of where this team is heading —- and it’s in the WRONG DIRECTION.
Wild vs New York Rangers
Wild +125 It’s becoming a very familiar story for this Rangers team, well at least for me. Because I spent much of the 2nd half of last season losing money fading this team —- and while a smarter man than I (or at least less stubborn) would take their medicine and admit this Rangers team just has a way of winning more games than the underlying numbers would suggest they ought to, I AIN’T THAT GUY PAL. Because despite the 51 points that would say otherwise, I’m still not convinced that this Rangers team is even a borderline cup contender like the market tends to price them as. First and foremost, the offensive/possession numbers aren’t that impressive —- they are creating just 49.8% of the expected goals at 5-on-5, account for barely over 50% of the shot attempts, and despite getting 52% of the powerplay time, are creating less than 50% of the expected powerplay goals. If it weren’t for Igor and some high shooting %’s amongst their star players this season might look a fair bit different —- but it was the same song and dance last year wasn’t it? Well eventually the good fortune is going to run out, and while the bottom isn’t likely to fall out for this team, getting the Wild at a nice little underdog price is something I can certainly get behind. Because while the offensive in Minny isn’t exactly elite, the defensive side of the ice is where this team excels —- the Wild rank 3rd in expected goals against per 60 minutes, and while the attack has struggled at times to create high-danger chances, this is a game that I’m expecting to be fairly low-event, and honestly should be priced a little closer to coin flip then we are seeing right now. Espescially with how well Filip Gustavsson has played in net for the Wild, Igor’s going to have to be at his best to have the sizeable edge in net this line indicates. So give me the Wild to win what looks to be a real scrappy battle in the Big Apple.
1/5/23
Avalanche vs Canucks
Avs in Regulation +102
So there are two things at play here that I’m thinking provide us gamblers a little bit of value on Colorado —- the first of which is the improving health of the defending cup champs. First and foremost the return of Nathan Mackinnon is a boost to the system, but beyond the captain, Valeri Nichuskin was a more or less full participant in the morning skate, and despite the day-to-day classification on the injury list, I’d be pretty surprised if he didn’t play. If both are a go, this is a slam dunk in my estimation —- and when these teams play a little later in the year, don’t be surprised to see a massive - sign beside the Avalanche name. And that is because it is really hard to know where the bottom is for the Canucks team right now, especially after a truly listless performance last time out against the Islanders in which the scoreboard properly reflected just how poor this group played. The goaltending is shotty, the forward group outside of Elias Peterson just isn’t producing, and with Bruce Boudreau in charge, the defensive zone coverage is just going to be what it is —- poor. Moreover, this group has just been a dysfunctional mess from the start of the season; because whether it was the GM going on the radio talking about the coach’s contract (or lack thereof), or the captain slamming his stick against the crossbar of his own cage, this team is just not pulling in the same direction. So with the narrative laid out, do the numbers support it? Well, of course, they do! Because Vancouver has struggled to carry play all year, owning a below 50% Corsi/Fenwick, and accounting for just 48.4% of the expected goals share —- a number that’s actually slipped to 46% over the past 5 games. And while I grant you that’s a small sample size, it’s just indicative of where this team is heading —- and it’s in the WRONG DIRECTION.