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3/25/23
Denver nuggets -2 1/2
f anybody on Milwaukee sits it obviously goes up. Regardless, I like the situation for Denver who’s playing at home where they have been incredible. They’ve covered three out of their last four games even though it was against scrub teams they still exceeded the markets expectations and they have a really strong rest advantage to hopefully get some little things worked out
Utah jazz +7 1/2
I expect Fox to be out in Markkanen to be in. If Fox is out, Sexton, Markkanen and Clarkson are still out I am at 7 1/2 which is right where the number is right now… regardless, I like the way this game lines up for Utah coming off of getting blown out and Sacramento is coming off of a strong win (human nature). I also think Utah’s size will give Sacramento some trouble. If Sacramento had fox things might be different, but without fox even more usage is going to fall on Sabonis who I don’t think has the greatest matchup in the world here.
Phoenix Suns -1
based on what Doc River said yesterday I would be surprised if James Harden plays today. I think Joel Embiid will be truly questionable. If Joel Embiid plays and James Harden sits, I’m right at phx-.75. Worst case scenario for this bet is Joel Embiid plays. However, from a match up perspective, Bismack Biyombo is not a push over. If he can contain Joel Embiid even a little bit (which I think he can) there are some strong matchup advantages for Phoenix (cp3/booker). In addition, based on how Phoenix has been playing, I think they will obviously play with great effort which can’t always be said for Philadelphia
3/13/23
Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5
(This bet is NOT +EV if Rudy sits but this line also will not be available if he plays so I’m taking a chance he’s gonna try to play. Follow at your own risk lol) I’m at 4 on this game which is right where betonline opened at before the Rudy G questionable tag came out (DK also opened at 4. Both books post their own openers/opinions so I always take note of them an a couple others) In addition to having a mathematical edge I like the style of play situation here. Since changing coaches the biggest change has been how Atlanta plays the pick an roll. They no longer switch if they can help it which in theory is obviously going to help their defense considering how terrible things can become when Tray Young gets switched off the other PG (they previously switched everything and would double team after the switch)…. However, Mike Conley is one of the best pick a roll PGs in the league. Pair him with Rudy and I think ATL will really struggle here defensively trying to get around the Rudy screen without switching. (The more efficient defense is to switch all pick an rolls. Teams like GS with their death lineup back in 2016/17/18 revolutionized how to play the pick and roll but you need to have the personnel to do it. It didn’t work for ATL because they don’t have the personnel. (Right now BK has great personnel along with a couple others)
Dallas Mavericks +1
(This bet is NOT +EV if Irving sits but this line also will not be available if he plays so I’m taking a chance he’s gonna try to play. Follow at your own risk lol) I’m at Dall -1.5 but I’m extremely low on Dallas. Subjectively I don’t think they should be as low as I have them despite them earning the number I’ve given them. I personally think their issues stem from Luka and Irving learning to play together. It reminds me of wade and LBJ trying to figure things out. Take Luka off the court tonight and I think their offense will run smoothly. So far over 382 possessions with Kyrie on an Luka off the Dall offense is averaging 125.7 pts per 100 possessions (98th percentile). Let’s also not forget the drastic home/road splits both of these teams share
2/13/23
Golden State has indicated that Klay Thompson might play today, implying to me that they’re not intending on sitting everybody, but possibly taking this back to back seriously and the clippers Have some stuff to wrinkle out at the point guard position With the Washington wizards, Kyle Kuzma went through the entire shoot around yesterday, but didn’t play. Bradley Bill did the exact same thing when he was coming back from his injury so I expect Kuzman to play today. Not sure about Jerami Grant for Portland, but it seems like these concussion like symptoms are lingering. He missed the second half of one game due to concussion like symptoms and then played the next game but yet now the concussion like symptoms are back and he missed yesterday. With Phoenix, I simply have my handicap at-4 Orlando Magic are implying that everybody should be playing except for Cole Anthony which isn’t too much of a letdown. Where as Toronto has been struggling and Gary Trent along with precious Achiuwa both missed practice yesterday and are listed questionable so I don’t expect them to play. Hopefully this little bit of insight will give you enough confidence to fade or follow.
1/28/23
Los Angeles Lakers +9
I made this game Boston -7.65. That’s assuming that both teams are full strength. We know that Anthony Davis is on a minutes restriction and has not been fully integrated back into the offense yet and we know that Marcus Smart is out. For me those details are not enough to justify Boston being favored by nine especially considering the fact that they’ve now lost three in a row and are going through a little bit of a rut. They're still no question my number one power in a team in the NBA but I think nine is too much here.
Detroit Pistons -5
I think a lot of people are overlooking the fact that Jalen Green, and Kevin Porter are out. Specifically, Jalen Green, who played last game and didn’t seem to get injured at any point but is all of a sudden out. Giving those guys minimal value Im at Detroit -5. (I personally think Jalen Green is worth more than what I am giving him.) I agree Jalen Green doesn’t play any defense, but nobody on the Rockets plays defense, and at least Jalen Green brings scoring to the table as he is a walking bucket. I view this as two teams trying to tank for the first round pick and Houston is making it clear, They’re tanking harder. Lol. Plus you’d expect to Detroit to care a little bit since their playing in front of their home crowd.
1/26/23
Phonix Suns -1.5
Bookmaker let you know their opinion here and this is something I always look for regarding sharp books. The market was sitting Dallas -1/-1.5 and had been sitting there for a while. Bookmaker opened the exact opposite with the Phoenix Suns -1.5 and never budged. I personally am sitting at Phoenix -3.25 (no booker, shamet, Payne, wood) but I’ve openly admitted before it’s difficult for me to handicap the Suns games over the last 3 weeks. This more of a situational bet than anything. Dallas is in a rut, pho looks really good as of late; and I think the market has undervalued Christian wood quite a bit throughout these last several games. Thrown in bookmakers stance here regarding the opener I expect this game to at the very least go up to Phoenix -2 but I’d be surprised if it does go further
1/17/23
LA Clippers +2
I’m at 76ers -2.25 without PG playing for the Clippers. I think PG is playing. Luke and PG practiced yesterday. Luke was ruled out afterwards PG wasn’t. Maybe I’m reading too far into it but I think PG plays and I’m at Philadelphia -1.85 with PG in. Does that mean PG is worth 4.1pts!?!? Point values are important to understand. The 1 in the NBA isn’t very valuable. Phil -2.25 to LAC-1.85 is only an 8% move
1/16/23
New Orleans Pelicans +7.5
This game comes down to what you make Herb Jones value given the current depth there. I make this number with everything factored in 6.6. I might be too low on his value. However, I like the situation of Cleveland trying to work Ricky Rubio back in the rotation. They were rolling but now they’re trying to integrate a new piece. They’ll be better in the long run with him but right this second I think it throws them off a little.
Golden Sate Warriors -3
Golden State has been terrible on the road (4-17). You can look at it two ways. They’re trash on the road and it’s become mental or they have only played 4/5 games fully healthy on the road. The counter argument to only being fully healthy on the road 4/5 games is they’ve only been healthy a limited number of games at home and their record at home is incredible.. Personally I haven’t gotten to the point of moving my home court numbers further whenever Golden State is on the road yet and that probably explains why I see value here. Maybe I’m slow on adjustments here or maybe the market is too reactionary to the sample size. I see both sides so proceed with caution.
1/11/23
Pistons +7.5
Assuming everyone who was out yesterday is out again today this is slightly-EV. However, I think Bogdanovic and Stewart will play; Duran I’m 50/50 on. The true openers were at 5.5/6 for this game. I’m at 5.5. Because of the questionable players I think getting the full 7 here is important (not 6.5). I also like Detroit coming off a beat down and the most under performing team in basketball playing on the road with the mindset of ‘we just gotta show up and they’ll hand us a W.’ Good luck.
Celtics -2
Assuming home court is worth 2pts and KD is worth 4pts this number (Bos -2) would imply that Boston and Brooklyn would be a pk on a neutral court with Boston on a back to back/3out of 4. If you want to use some different numbers we can assume home court is worth 2.5 and KD is worth 4.5…this still assumes Boston & Brooklyn are equal on a neutral court as long as the Celtics are on a b2b/3out of 4. I disagree. I expect them to sit Horford, play Smart and Williams.
1/10/23
Mavericks +1.5
Luka has missed four games this year. All of them have been on the second half of back to Backs. I’m making this a bet under the assumption that he plays tonight and with Paul George already out I think the wrong team is currently favored. Situationally, the Mavericks have won eight out of ten. They’re putting things together. On the flipside, the clippers have been dealing with a lot of injuries, players in and out of the lineup, and have lost five in a row. Make of that what you will…
1/6/23
Clippers +1.5
Let’s hypothetically say homecourt is worth 2.25 and Bradley Beal is worth 1.5pts. With this line being OKC-1 at home we can infer that Washington would be a minimum of -2.5 on a neutral court when healthy. Records in the NBA don’t mean much but they basically have the same record, both teams have dealt with their share of injuries and both teams have nearly the same +/- (non garbage time) I simply can’t give Washington that much credit despite they have been playing very well lately. I’m at Thunder -2.5 here at home with Beal out
1/5/23
Rockets +7.5
I’m at 5.75 on this game. The line opened at 5 at bet online and 6 at bookmaker. I like bookmakers opener more. The initial move up to 6.5 and touching 7 in some place seemed to be an assumption of Eric Gordon sitting as well as possibly sengun. Once the injury report came out and none of them were on it plus we found out Jae’Sean Tate is back (limited min) the line came back to 6.5 which makes since considering how ugly Houston was last night but now seeing a 7.5 flash!?! That’s just silly unless there’s a surprise injury not know to the general public yet. I also like the situation of Houston being off an embarrassing loss. Down by 20+ in the 1st Q to a team without all their main guys. I like to think we will see a more focused effort tonight.
1/4/23
Sacramento Kings -1
This is more of a numbers play than anything. I’m at 2.5. I understand the line opening up at 1 under the assumption Monk or Hurter would sit since they were both questionable yesterday and I’m sure some people assumed some other guys would sit as well considering they played in UTH last night which is considered one of the more difficult back to backs in the NBA. However, nobody is slated to be sitting upon writing this so I think Sac presents a little value here at home. It really depends on what you felt the openers across the board(-1) were accounting for. If you don’t think any of the openers might have been assuming at least one guy may sit then you probably don’t see any value here and you think -1 is strong. I think the openers as well as myself felt guys would sit.
Lakers +8.5
Bookmaker opened this game at 3. Bet online opened this game 4. I’m at 3.85. Let’s assume bet online was right and the handicap is Miami -4…how much is Lebron worth? Keep in mind we’re talking about valuable numbers going through 5,6&7. Is he worth 4.5 or 5 pts? After injuries I’m at 7.25 personally but my number is irrelevant. If bet onlines handicap was correct -4 (meaning bookmaker was wrong) how much is Lebron worth? Then we look at the situation. I think two games in three nights in LA matters….Beat the Clippers, night off, play the lakers who are missing Lebron and A.D….these are human beings and human nature is a real thing (even more so for veteran teams just trying to get through the season). There’s a real case to be made for Miami Heat coming out flat.
1/2/23
TOR @ IND
I’m still high on Toronto Raptors. This morning was actually the first time I looked and saw how bad Toronto Raptors record was. If Fred van plays I’m closer to pick if not Tor slight favorites. He’s had a “stiff back” for 2 weeks now. Maybe he made a new year resolution. Even if he sits I think tor has a legit chance to cover this number but keep in mind if you tail I’m higher on tor than the market. This is more of a number play than anything
LAL @ CHR
I like Charlotte Hornets here off a bad loss and Lakers of a good win and Lakers staying on the road over the new year. Situationally this is interesting and number wise I think the Hornets should be at least -1.5 even with Oubre out.
ATL @ GS
Two teams going totally opposite directions here….I love it! Number wise I like it I’m closer to pk and situationally how could you not anticipate an inflated number given what’s been going on.
12/30/22
I like the situation here with Toronto coming off of back to back losses to two very good teams with a chance to regroup against a depleted Phoenix team, missing Landry Shamet Cameron Payne, and Devin Booker. I think precious will play and I think Fred will play. The other guys on Toronto typically don’t sit on back to back’s so I like to think the rest of the guys will play as well. (Slightly concerned about Scottie barns). Assuming Toronto is healthy and Phoenix injury report stays the same. I have Toronto -4. (In regards to Bet sizing, I personally put 1.5 units down at -1.5 would recommend the same for anything -2 or less. I will continue to grade as a regular bet though)
When you’re evaluating the market and you’re trying to figure out if the move you see on the screen is a real move think about what book got hit first and was that the best line available. At 6:10 AM central time circa got hit at -6 MIL. All the other books were at-5.5 (except two who had +6 juiced towards Minnesota) and didn’t move until 3-5min later once they saw Circa…. stuff like this does not always signal a fake simply because there are times when a group will take a half point worse to get a bigger bet down and books like circa and book maker take bigger bets in the early hours but it’s certainly something to consider before blindly following.
Denver nuggets -2 1/2
f anybody on Milwaukee sits it obviously goes up. Regardless, I like the situation for Denver who’s playing at home where they have been incredible. They’ve covered three out of their last four games even though it was against scrub teams they still exceeded the markets expectations and they have a really strong rest advantage to hopefully get some little things worked out
Utah jazz +7 1/2
I expect Fox to be out in Markkanen to be in. If Fox is out, Sexton, Markkanen and Clarkson are still out I am at 7 1/2 which is right where the number is right now… regardless, I like the way this game lines up for Utah coming off of getting blown out and Sacramento is coming off of a strong win (human nature). I also think Utah’s size will give Sacramento some trouble. If Sacramento had fox things might be different, but without fox even more usage is going to fall on Sabonis who I don’t think has the greatest matchup in the world here.
Phoenix Suns -1
based on what Doc River said yesterday I would be surprised if James Harden plays today. I think Joel Embiid will be truly questionable. If Joel Embiid plays and James Harden sits, I’m right at phx-.75. Worst case scenario for this bet is Joel Embiid plays. However, from a match up perspective, Bismack Biyombo is not a push over. If he can contain Joel Embiid even a little bit (which I think he can) there are some strong matchup advantages for Phoenix (cp3/booker). In addition, based on how Phoenix has been playing, I think they will obviously play with great effort which can’t always be said for Philadelphia
3/13/23
Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5
(This bet is NOT +EV if Rudy sits but this line also will not be available if he plays so I’m taking a chance he’s gonna try to play. Follow at your own risk lol) I’m at 4 on this game which is right where betonline opened at before the Rudy G questionable tag came out (DK also opened at 4. Both books post their own openers/opinions so I always take note of them an a couple others) In addition to having a mathematical edge I like the style of play situation here. Since changing coaches the biggest change has been how Atlanta plays the pick an roll. They no longer switch if they can help it which in theory is obviously going to help their defense considering how terrible things can become when Tray Young gets switched off the other PG (they previously switched everything and would double team after the switch)…. However, Mike Conley is one of the best pick a roll PGs in the league. Pair him with Rudy and I think ATL will really struggle here defensively trying to get around the Rudy screen without switching. (The more efficient defense is to switch all pick an rolls. Teams like GS with their death lineup back in 2016/17/18 revolutionized how to play the pick and roll but you need to have the personnel to do it. It didn’t work for ATL because they don’t have the personnel. (Right now BK has great personnel along with a couple others)
Dallas Mavericks +1
(This bet is NOT +EV if Irving sits but this line also will not be available if he plays so I’m taking a chance he’s gonna try to play. Follow at your own risk lol) I’m at Dall -1.5 but I’m extremely low on Dallas. Subjectively I don’t think they should be as low as I have them despite them earning the number I’ve given them. I personally think their issues stem from Luka and Irving learning to play together. It reminds me of wade and LBJ trying to figure things out. Take Luka off the court tonight and I think their offense will run smoothly. So far over 382 possessions with Kyrie on an Luka off the Dall offense is averaging 125.7 pts per 100 possessions (98th percentile). Let’s also not forget the drastic home/road splits both of these teams share
2/13/23
Golden State has indicated that Klay Thompson might play today, implying to me that they’re not intending on sitting everybody, but possibly taking this back to back seriously and the clippers Have some stuff to wrinkle out at the point guard position With the Washington wizards, Kyle Kuzma went through the entire shoot around yesterday, but didn’t play. Bradley Bill did the exact same thing when he was coming back from his injury so I expect Kuzman to play today. Not sure about Jerami Grant for Portland, but it seems like these concussion like symptoms are lingering. He missed the second half of one game due to concussion like symptoms and then played the next game but yet now the concussion like symptoms are back and he missed yesterday. With Phoenix, I simply have my handicap at-4 Orlando Magic are implying that everybody should be playing except for Cole Anthony which isn’t too much of a letdown. Where as Toronto has been struggling and Gary Trent along with precious Achiuwa both missed practice yesterday and are listed questionable so I don’t expect them to play. Hopefully this little bit of insight will give you enough confidence to fade or follow.
1/28/23
Los Angeles Lakers +9
I made this game Boston -7.65. That’s assuming that both teams are full strength. We know that Anthony Davis is on a minutes restriction and has not been fully integrated back into the offense yet and we know that Marcus Smart is out. For me those details are not enough to justify Boston being favored by nine especially considering the fact that they’ve now lost three in a row and are going through a little bit of a rut. They're still no question my number one power in a team in the NBA but I think nine is too much here.
Detroit Pistons -5
I think a lot of people are overlooking the fact that Jalen Green, and Kevin Porter are out. Specifically, Jalen Green, who played last game and didn’t seem to get injured at any point but is all of a sudden out. Giving those guys minimal value Im at Detroit -5. (I personally think Jalen Green is worth more than what I am giving him.) I agree Jalen Green doesn’t play any defense, but nobody on the Rockets plays defense, and at least Jalen Green brings scoring to the table as he is a walking bucket. I view this as two teams trying to tank for the first round pick and Houston is making it clear, They’re tanking harder. Lol. Plus you’d expect to Detroit to care a little bit since their playing in front of their home crowd.
1/26/23
Phonix Suns -1.5
Bookmaker let you know their opinion here and this is something I always look for regarding sharp books. The market was sitting Dallas -1/-1.5 and had been sitting there for a while. Bookmaker opened the exact opposite with the Phoenix Suns -1.5 and never budged. I personally am sitting at Phoenix -3.25 (no booker, shamet, Payne, wood) but I’ve openly admitted before it’s difficult for me to handicap the Suns games over the last 3 weeks. This more of a situational bet than anything. Dallas is in a rut, pho looks really good as of late; and I think the market has undervalued Christian wood quite a bit throughout these last several games. Thrown in bookmakers stance here regarding the opener I expect this game to at the very least go up to Phoenix -2 but I’d be surprised if it does go further
1/17/23
LA Clippers +2
I’m at 76ers -2.25 without PG playing for the Clippers. I think PG is playing. Luke and PG practiced yesterday. Luke was ruled out afterwards PG wasn’t. Maybe I’m reading too far into it but I think PG plays and I’m at Philadelphia -1.85 with PG in. Does that mean PG is worth 4.1pts!?!? Point values are important to understand. The 1 in the NBA isn’t very valuable. Phil -2.25 to LAC-1.85 is only an 8% move
1/16/23
New Orleans Pelicans +7.5
This game comes down to what you make Herb Jones value given the current depth there. I make this number with everything factored in 6.6. I might be too low on his value. However, I like the situation of Cleveland trying to work Ricky Rubio back in the rotation. They were rolling but now they’re trying to integrate a new piece. They’ll be better in the long run with him but right this second I think it throws them off a little.
Golden Sate Warriors -3
Golden State has been terrible on the road (4-17). You can look at it two ways. They’re trash on the road and it’s become mental or they have only played 4/5 games fully healthy on the road. The counter argument to only being fully healthy on the road 4/5 games is they’ve only been healthy a limited number of games at home and their record at home is incredible.. Personally I haven’t gotten to the point of moving my home court numbers further whenever Golden State is on the road yet and that probably explains why I see value here. Maybe I’m slow on adjustments here or maybe the market is too reactionary to the sample size. I see both sides so proceed with caution.
1/11/23
Pistons +7.5
Assuming everyone who was out yesterday is out again today this is slightly-EV. However, I think Bogdanovic and Stewart will play; Duran I’m 50/50 on. The true openers were at 5.5/6 for this game. I’m at 5.5. Because of the questionable players I think getting the full 7 here is important (not 6.5). I also like Detroit coming off a beat down and the most under performing team in basketball playing on the road with the mindset of ‘we just gotta show up and they’ll hand us a W.’ Good luck.
Celtics -2
Assuming home court is worth 2pts and KD is worth 4pts this number (Bos -2) would imply that Boston and Brooklyn would be a pk on a neutral court with Boston on a back to back/3out of 4. If you want to use some different numbers we can assume home court is worth 2.5 and KD is worth 4.5…this still assumes Boston & Brooklyn are equal on a neutral court as long as the Celtics are on a b2b/3out of 4. I disagree. I expect them to sit Horford, play Smart and Williams.
1/10/23
Mavericks +1.5
Luka has missed four games this year. All of them have been on the second half of back to Backs. I’m making this a bet under the assumption that he plays tonight and with Paul George already out I think the wrong team is currently favored. Situationally, the Mavericks have won eight out of ten. They’re putting things together. On the flipside, the clippers have been dealing with a lot of injuries, players in and out of the lineup, and have lost five in a row. Make of that what you will…
1/6/23
Clippers +1.5
Let’s hypothetically say homecourt is worth 2.25 and Bradley Beal is worth 1.5pts. With this line being OKC-1 at home we can infer that Washington would be a minimum of -2.5 on a neutral court when healthy. Records in the NBA don’t mean much but they basically have the same record, both teams have dealt with their share of injuries and both teams have nearly the same +/- (non garbage time) I simply can’t give Washington that much credit despite they have been playing very well lately. I’m at Thunder -2.5 here at home with Beal out
1/5/23
Rockets +7.5
I’m at 5.75 on this game. The line opened at 5 at bet online and 6 at bookmaker. I like bookmakers opener more. The initial move up to 6.5 and touching 7 in some place seemed to be an assumption of Eric Gordon sitting as well as possibly sengun. Once the injury report came out and none of them were on it plus we found out Jae’Sean Tate is back (limited min) the line came back to 6.5 which makes since considering how ugly Houston was last night but now seeing a 7.5 flash!?! That’s just silly unless there’s a surprise injury not know to the general public yet. I also like the situation of Houston being off an embarrassing loss. Down by 20+ in the 1st Q to a team without all their main guys. I like to think we will see a more focused effort tonight.
1/4/23
Sacramento Kings -1
This is more of a numbers play than anything. I’m at 2.5. I understand the line opening up at 1 under the assumption Monk or Hurter would sit since they were both questionable yesterday and I’m sure some people assumed some other guys would sit as well considering they played in UTH last night which is considered one of the more difficult back to backs in the NBA. However, nobody is slated to be sitting upon writing this so I think Sac presents a little value here at home. It really depends on what you felt the openers across the board(-1) were accounting for. If you don’t think any of the openers might have been assuming at least one guy may sit then you probably don’t see any value here and you think -1 is strong. I think the openers as well as myself felt guys would sit.
Lakers +8.5
Bookmaker opened this game at 3. Bet online opened this game 4. I’m at 3.85. Let’s assume bet online was right and the handicap is Miami -4…how much is Lebron worth? Keep in mind we’re talking about valuable numbers going through 5,6&7. Is he worth 4.5 or 5 pts? After injuries I’m at 7.25 personally but my number is irrelevant. If bet onlines handicap was correct -4 (meaning bookmaker was wrong) how much is Lebron worth? Then we look at the situation. I think two games in three nights in LA matters….Beat the Clippers, night off, play the lakers who are missing Lebron and A.D….these are human beings and human nature is a real thing (even more so for veteran teams just trying to get through the season). There’s a real case to be made for Miami Heat coming out flat.
1/2/23
TOR @ IND
I’m still high on Toronto Raptors. This morning was actually the first time I looked and saw how bad Toronto Raptors record was. If Fred van plays I’m closer to pick if not Tor slight favorites. He’s had a “stiff back” for 2 weeks now. Maybe he made a new year resolution. Even if he sits I think tor has a legit chance to cover this number but keep in mind if you tail I’m higher on tor than the market. This is more of a number play than anything
LAL @ CHR
I like Charlotte Hornets here off a bad loss and Lakers of a good win and Lakers staying on the road over the new year. Situationally this is interesting and number wise I think the Hornets should be at least -1.5 even with Oubre out.
ATL @ GS
Two teams going totally opposite directions here….I love it! Number wise I like it I’m closer to pk and situationally how could you not anticipate an inflated number given what’s been going on.
12/30/22
I like the situation here with Toronto coming off of back to back losses to two very good teams with a chance to regroup against a depleted Phoenix team, missing Landry Shamet Cameron Payne, and Devin Booker. I think precious will play and I think Fred will play. The other guys on Toronto typically don’t sit on back to back’s so I like to think the rest of the guys will play as well. (Slightly concerned about Scottie barns). Assuming Toronto is healthy and Phoenix injury report stays the same. I have Toronto -4. (In regards to Bet sizing, I personally put 1.5 units down at -1.5 would recommend the same for anything -2 or less. I will continue to grade as a regular bet though)
When you’re evaluating the market and you’re trying to figure out if the move you see on the screen is a real move think about what book got hit first and was that the best line available. At 6:10 AM central time circa got hit at -6 MIL. All the other books were at-5.5 (except two who had +6 juiced towards Minnesota) and didn’t move until 3-5min later once they saw Circa…. stuff like this does not always signal a fake simply because there are times when a group will take a half point worse to get a bigger bet down and books like circa and book maker take bigger bets in the early hours but it’s certainly something to consider before blindly following.